^ I agree that the standalones are chosen strategically. For the playsets, taking the two main characters and having one in the playset and one as a standalone will boost sales, since people will have to buy more than one product to get the two most famous characters. They've done it for Cars (putting Mater as a standalone), and I think they'll do it for Toy Story as well. The playset is Toy Story In Space (which makes sense, since the Toy Story 3 toy box was a western and they've already got Lone Ranger in Infinity, so going in a different direction gives us variety) so Buzz needs to be in the playset pack, so I think Woody will be a standalone. I also think Phineas will be in his corresponding playset pack, with Ferb as a standalone, since (a) people will want to keep the brothers together, meaning they'll buy two products instead of just one if Phineas and Ferb are packaged together, and (b) a lot of people would want just Agent P, so it's a good idea to put him in the more expensive two-pack so people will pay more to get him.
Madwritter, these are awesome picks, and I'd love it if they were true! Unfortunately I'm not sure we're going to see nearly that many figures in wave 1, although it's very possible that they may talk about wave 2 figures at D23. I think the 'girls pack' mentioned on that French leak may just be female standalones repackaged for the Christmas shopping period, so maybe Rapunzel, Vanellope and Violet, but it would be lovely if it was completely new characters, like you've mentioned!
I've already mentioned previously that I think the D23 announcements will be Mickey, Ralph, Vanellope and Rapunzel, with a free Mickey given to those attending, but obviously it's all just speculation and it's a lot of fun seeing everyone put their ideas and wishlists forward. I don't know how much they might focus on wave 2, since they want to get people hyped about buying the stuff that's available, not hanging on for future stuff, but at the same time they want to push the idea that this game will keep expanding and growing. So I have my fingers crossed that they'll play a sneak-peak trailer of some of the wave 2 stuff.
I like the idea of the Luxo Jr lamp being the Toy Story playset piece. Or maybe the ball he balances on, that'd be cute. Or maybe The Claw (ooooooh). Or something more Buzz-themed, since it's a space playset, like the Star Command logo. I can't wait to see the new D23 pieces, either way!